THIS poll was commissioned by AZPNews.com in order to predict the outcome of Trinidad and Tobago general elections on Monday August 10, 2020.
It was conducted by Supreme Media Services under the guidance and supervision of Gerald Pradesh Latchman.
Latchman has a Masters in Small and Medium Enterprise Management from Arthur Lok Jack Graduate School of Business as well as a Bachelor in History and Economics from the University of the West Indies. He also holds a Diploma in Education as well as an Advanced Diploma in Management Accounting.
He has been conducting polls and surveys since 2013 for a number of private entities who wanted to gain knowledge about their organisations.
Part one of the poll published on Friday looked at the seats that may change hands and determine the election outcome.
The focus in this the second part is on the analysis of some of the main questions that were asked and the responses:
Do you think there were any act/acts of corruption during 2015 -2020 and if so what were some of them?
As the chart above shows, many people perceived that there were acts of corruption during the tenure of government.
A breakdown by age shows that all the age groups agreed that there were some acts of corruption during the last five years. The age group 46-55 were particularly adamant that these acts did occur.
If we look at the issue in terms of gender, we notice that men had a higher perception of corruption than women. Both groups were in the 60% and more range which is very high.
Some of the issues of corruption perceived were:
- Hotel party by a minister
- An oil drilling company
- Sale of Petrotrin
- Family rental income
- Tenders for Ferries
Do you think if the UNC regains office there will be corruption?
The chart shows that the majority said no or were unsure – combined they amount to 68% which is higher that people who felt the UNC would be corrupt- 32%. The main reasons persons said no for this is that it is a new slate and most of the old heads are gone.
Do you support the government’s relationship with Maduro?
This shows that the relationship with Maduro is of concern and many were concerned of possible US sanctions. The Venezuelan issue has repeatedly appeared on the minds and tongues of many citizens.
Which party do you think is campaigning on the issues?
The chart shows that the UNC has based its campaign around issues rather than a single issue. Many respondents said the PNM campaign was centred around the UNC failures during office rather than the PNM’s achievements while in office for the past five years.
Do you support the call for the repatriation of our citizens by the Opposition Leader?
The majority of the persons agreed with her statement. Many indicated that this was not so before the CPL announcement and the border breaches. It seems clear that people wanted their family and friends to return home to be safe.
Who do you think is the better leader?
Who are you voting for?
The lead is slim but the UNC has the edge. Bear in mind that the total number of votes does not determine the election outcome in our first-past-the-post electoral system.
It should be noted that only Tobago East was polled.
The poll indicated that the momentum is with the UNC. The predictions bearing in mind a margin of error of +/- 5% is below regarding the marginal seats.
The final results will be determined by which party can get the voters to the poll.
Based on the above analysis if the voter turnout is around 68%, the pollster claims the PNM could lose or come close to losing its majority.
Please note the poll did not take into consideration any issues that occurred after July 31, 2020 and the margin of error is +/- 5%.
See part 1 below: