By Sue-Ann Wayow
AS long as there is an increase in the movement and inter-mingling of the population, Covid-19 cases will continue to increase.
This is according to Technical Director of the Epidemiology Division in the Ministry of Health Dr Avery Hinds who said no one factor contributed to the spike the country is facing.
He sought to bring a closure to statements being made in the political arena that candlelight vigils held in February and the long Easter weekend contributed to the sharp increase.
Increases began at the start of week 10 which was the week of March 7, Dr Hinds said.
Using graphs to demonstrate his point, Dr Hinds said there was a 37% increase in week 10 and a 89% increase in week 11.
He noted that Week 10 is from the 7th of March, week 11 the 14th of March and week 12 from the 21st of March when there was a 64% increase in cases.
He said, “We began to see a steady increase from one week to the next beginning as early as that second week in March.”
“There was a slight decrease from then up until week 14 which was around April 4, the Easter period.”
Dr Hinds said, “We then began to see large increases, from week 14 to 15, 72% increase, week 15 to 16, 85% increase.
“The increases preceded Easter and would have been in part related to whatever activities were happening before that then compounded by additional movement. So we had a surge on top of a surge,” he said.
Dr Hinds added, “The movement that would have been taken place at both of those time periods or just before both of those time periods will contribute to additional mixing of a population that has circulating virus and to the extent if there are any movement and mixing, there is the increased risk of transmission.
“We saw it the July to August time period, movement and mixing, then precipitated a spike in the August to September time frame.”
The reopening of sporting activities, people attending religious services and being involved in more interaction based activities, all would have contributed to the spike, the epidemiologist said.
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