FORMER British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once opined “a week is a long time in politics.”
Indeed, the political events of early January 2025 will ripple through history for a long time. Dr Rowley’s decision to depart politics is unprecedented in annals of Trinidad and Tobago. Dr Williams announced his departure in September 1973 but retracted by December of that year. In the interregnum, the price of oil quadrupled and oil production was surging. Dr Rowley has no such luck.
Walking away from power is a rarity among Caribbean leaders with the notable exceptions of Michael Manley (1993), PJ Patterson (2006) and Bruce Golding (2011), all Jamaican prime ministers. Why is Dr Rowley leaving while at the apex of politics? He proffered no material reason. There are many theories floating around and one can speculate around any of them.
The last two months of 2024 were not good months for Dr Rowley and his government. There was the fallout from the acceptance of the SRC’s recommendations for generous salary increases, there was the error with the old age pension and there was the spike in murders and home invasions which culminated in a State of Emergency.
In that two-month window, one got the impression that a beleaguered PNM had arrived at a tipping point in unpopularity. This unpopularity had its antecedents in the state of the economy, the decline of the energy sector and the crime crisis. Moreover, the language of some ministers showed that the government was out of touch. One minister announced on CNN that citizens of Trinidad and Tobago had it good, another advocated a return to bicycles and coal pots and a third asked citizens to cut back on macaroni pie.
To make things worse, on November 5, 2024, Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris. It is well known that the Rowley administration had built diplomatic bridges with leading lights in Harris’ Democratic Party including members of Congress Maxine Waters, Hakeem Jeffries and Gregory Meeks.
This was the diplomatic platform that was a major part of the lobby for the OFAC licenses that created the space for the issuance of licences between Venezuela and Shell/ NGC and Venezuela and BP/NGC as they related to Dragon and Coucina Manakin respectively.
One gets the impression that the PNM leader considers this his Magnum Opus for the last nine years. However, Trump’s win may have taken the wind out of the PNM. Despite protestations to the contrary, it is evident that the PNM does not have similar linkages to the Republican party.
To make the matter more complex, the Biden Administration has recognised Edmundo Gonzales Urrutia as President-Elect of Venezuela and as the victor of last July’s election. It is therefore unlikely that President Trump 2.0, will reverse this recognition.
Moreover, the incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a vocal critic of Nicolas Maduro. Where does this leave the Dragon and Coucina-Manakin projects? No one can say with any certainty what will happen. In such a situation it is unlikely that Shell will approve Dragon with the OFAC license renewal for Dragon (due in Oct 2025) up in the air.
At the time of writing this article, Republican Senator for Florida, Rick Scott posted on X that he was eager to meet with Gonzales Urrutia and described the Maduro regime as tyrannical. The Republicans seem to be galvanizing against Maduro. Did Trump’s win and the rise of the Republicans last November play a role in Dr Rowley’s loss of political appetite?
The life of the 12th Republican Parliament expires on August 27th, 2025. If all goes to Dr Rowley’s plan, we should have a new PNM Prime Minister before that date and general elections before or after that date. That person will be “Prime Minister without mandate” and beneficiary of “the last political will and testament” of Keith Rowley.
The events of the next eight months will therefore test the limits of section 76 of the constitution and test the limits of the 69-year-old PNM. The situation is made even more complex by the vacancy in Dabadie-Omera and the presence of the UNC’s five dissident MP’s. We live in interesting times.
Kevin Ramnarine is a former minister of energy of Trinidad and Tobago
Two Months in 2024
AZP News Commentary
FORMER British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once opined “a week is a long time in politics.”
Indeed, the political events of early January 2025 will ripple through history for a long time. Dr Rowley’s decision to depart politics is unprecedented in annals of Trinidad and Tobago. Dr Williams announced his departure in September 1973 but retracted by December of that year. In the interregnum, the price of oil quadrupled and oil production was surging. Dr Rowley has no such luck.
Walking away from power is a rarity among Caribbean leaders with the notable exceptions of Michael Manley (1993), PJ Patterson (2006) and Bruce Golding (2011), all Jamaican prime ministers. Why is Dr Rowley leaving while at the apex of politics? He proffered no material reason. There are many theories floating around and one can speculate around any of them.
The last two months of 2024 were not good months for Dr Rowley and his government. There was the fallout from the acceptance of the SRC’s recommendations for generous salary increases, there was the error with the old age pension and there was the spike in murders and home invasions which culminated in a State of Emergency.
In that two-month window, one got the impression that a beleaguered PNM had arrived at a tipping point in unpopularity. This unpopularity had its antecedents in the state of the economy, the decline of the energy sector and the crime crisis. Moreover, the language of some ministers showed that the government was out of touch. One minister announced on CNN that citizens of Trinidad and Tobago had it good, another advocated a return to bicycles and coal pots and a third asked citizens to cut back on macaroni pie.
To make things worse, on November 5, 2024, Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris. It is well known that the Rowley administration had built diplomatic bridges with leading lights in Harris’ Democratic Party including members of Congress Maxine Waters, Hakeem Jeffries and Gregory Meeks.
This was the diplomatic platform that was a major part of the lobby for the OFAC licenses that created the space for the issuance of licences between Venezuela and Shell/ NGC and Venezuela and BP/NGC as they related to Dragon and Coucina Manakin respectively.
One gets the impression that the PNM leader considers this his Magnum Opus for the last nine years. However, Trump’s win may have taken the wind out of the PNM. Despite protestations to the contrary, it is evident that the PNM does not have similar linkages to the Republican party.
To make the matter more complex, the Biden Administration has recognised Edmundo Gonzales Urrutia as President-Elect of Venezuela and as the victor of last July’s election. It is therefore unlikely that President Trump 2.0, will reverse this recognition.
Moreover, the incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a vocal critic of Nicolas Maduro. Where does this leave the Dragon and Coucina-Manakin projects? No one can say with any certainty what will happen. In such a situation it is unlikely that Shell will approve Dragon with the OFAC license renewal for Dragon (due in Oct 2025) up in the air.
At the time of writing this article, Republican Senator for Florida, Rick Scott posted on X that he was eager to meet with Gonzales Urrutia and described the Maduro regime as tyrannical. The Republicans seem to be galvanizing against Maduro. Did Trump’s win and the rise of the Republicans last November play a role in Dr Rowley’s loss of political appetite?
The life of the 12th Republican Parliament expires on August 27th, 2025. If all goes to Dr Rowley’s plan, we should have a new PNM Prime Minister before that date and general elections before or after that date. That person will be “Prime Minister without mandate” and beneficiary of “the last political will and testament” of Keith Rowley.
The events of the next eight months will therefore test the limits of section 76 of the constitution and test the limits of the 69-year-old PNM. The situation is made even more complex by the vacancy in Dabadie-Omera and the presence of the UNC’s five dissident MP’s. We live in interesting times.
Kevin Ramnarine is a former minister of energy of Trinidad and Tobago