By Kevin Ramanrine
MY comment at a UNC economic forum at La Joya on 27th March 2025, that Trinidad and Tobago is the 7th worst-performing economy in the world (2016 to 2024) seems to have bothered some folks.
In my statement I said, “IMF data indicate”. I never said, “based on an IMF report”. Yet some folks in their political fervor to prove me wrong went all over the internet searching for an IMF report or some report. There is a difference between data and information. Data are raw facts and figures while information is processed, organized and interpreted data. It seems inconceivable to some that someone could take data, analyze it and arrive at a conclusion. This is inductive reasoning, the core process of critical thinking.
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What is economic performance?
By economic performance, I mean change in GDP at constant prices over the period 2016 to 2024. I have also looked at 2015 to 2024. This is how economic growth or contraction is measured. The conclusion that we are the 7th worst-performing economy was based on an analysis of the IMF’s online database associated with the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report for October 2024. Note I said “the database associated” with that report and not the report. I have mapped fifteen steps that are required to get the database downloaded and analyze it. It does not require the usual two click Google search which my critics are familiar with. Incidentally, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, April 2025 report and database will be out this month.
Methodology
The IMF database is free and publicly available and does not require any login. Anyone can access it anytime. The database can be curated according to the range of years required, by countries and economic variables. The economic variable required to assess economic growth is “Gross Domestic Product, constant prices – percentage change”. When the parameters are entered, you can choose to download an Excel file. The file will be named WEO_Data.
The data in that Excel file can then be analyzed. The average growth rate for the period under review eg 2015 to 2024 or 2016 to 2024, can be calculated. Then using the “sort” function which is inside “data” arrange the table from smallest to largest. What is downloaded must be checked for missing data. Where data was missing and could be found in other IMF sources such as Article IV country reports, it was inputted. Three countries were removed, Eritrea, Syria and West Bank Gaza because too many years of data were missing. After this experience, I am starting to believe that many among us who like to huff and puff about economics simply cannot use Excel.
The facts are the economy performed badly from 2016 to 2024. In response to me, one politician highlighted the IMF Article IV report for 2024 as some sort of evidence that the economy is doing well. However, at La Joya I did not deal with only 2024. I was dealing with performance from 2016 to 2024, but that individual conveniently avoids or ignores that. This level of spin and obfuscation is one reason many have lost confidence in T&T’s economy.
Where is Haiti?
The IMF database has the T&T economy growing at a rate of -2.048 for year for 2016 to 2024. By comparison, Haiti was -0.931 for the same period. In this analysis Haiti ranked 12th worst for 2016 to 2024. The question that would follow is “yuh mean we worse off than Haiti?” It is important to remember that what we are measuring here are changes in GDP at constant prices, not absolute levels of wealth. By way of analogy Bill Gates can have nine bad years of Microsoft performance and still be one of the richest men in the world.
But ent we growing now?
The other remark is “but look the economy growing now”. Again, we were considering 2016 to 2024 a period of 9 years. In the post Covid years 2022, 2023 and 2024, T&T recorded positive economic growth. The growth post Covid is really a result of the full re-opening of the economy after 2021. In 2022 to 2024, energy sector output continued to struggle, and the growth came from the non-energy sector. That period of growth from 2022 to 2024 however pales in comparison to the loss of real GDP from 2016 to 2021. No matter how you look at it, the last 10 years have really been a lost decade.
Kevin Ramnarine is a former minister of energy
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