Caption: President-elect of Poland Karol Nawrocki

 

NATIONALIST historian Karol Nawrocki won Poland’s presidential election, official results showed Monday, in a major blow for the pro-EU government.

The 42-year-old fan of US President Donald Trump scored 50.9 percent of the vote in Sunday’s runoff in the highly polarised NATO and EU nation.

His 53-year-old rival Rafal Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s pro-EU mayor and an ally of the centrist government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, won 49.1 percent.

Trzaskowski took hours to concede defeat.

“Congratulations to Karol Nawrocki… This win is an obligation, especially in such difficult times. Especially with a close result. Don’t forget that,” he said on X.

Nawrocki’s win will block the government’s progressive agenda for abortion and LGBTQ rights and could revive tensions with Brussels over rule-of-law issues.

“Nawrocki’s presidency will be a rough ride for the Tusk government,” analyst Piotr Buras said in a statement.

He told AFP the election result was a “yellow card” for the government and could lead to “early parliamentary elections, maybe not this year, but next”.

Nawrocki’s victory could undermine strong ties with neighbouring Ukraine, as he is critical of Kyiv’s EU and NATO accession plans and wants to cut benefits for Ukrainian refugees.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that he looked forward to “continued fruitful cooperation with Poland and with President Nawrocki personally”.

Polish presidents have some influence over foreign and defence policy and wield veto power over legislation.

Reforms planned by Tusk, a former European Council president who came to power in 2023, have been held up by a deadlock with the current president, who endorsed Nawrocki.

Many Nawrocki supporters say they want stricter curbs on immigration and advocate conservative social values and more sovereignty for the country within the European Union.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she was “confident” that “very good cooperation” would continue with Warsaw.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban hailed his fellow nationalist’s “fantastic victory”, writing on X: “We are looking forward to working with you.”

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen also welcomed the “good news”, while Italy’s far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni offered “best wishes” to Nawrocki and said their countries “share common values”.

Nawrocki had visited the White House during his campaign and said Trump told him: “You will win.”

 ‘Patriot’

Outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who has served the two-term limit, congratulated Nawrocki and thanked Poles for the voter turnout of 72 percent.

Far-right leader Slawomir Mentzen, who came third in the first round of the election and played kingmaker in the runoff, also sent his congratulations.

He said his Confederation party’s voters expected Nawrocki to “not put Ukraine’s interests on par with ours”.

Nawrocki’s victory is likely to embolden the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023.

“I’m glad Nawrocki won… It was a really close race, but I think it’ll all be good,” Waldemar, a 58-year-old security guard, told AFP in Warsaw.

Anna Maria Ziolkiewicz, a 61-year-old accountant from the central city of Lodz, said “the brightest Poland” won and called Nawrocki “a patriot”.

 ‘They’ll block everything’

Trzaskowski voter Zdzislaw Brojek said he expected “chaos” under the new president, who he claimed would do the PiS party’s bidding.

“They’ll block laws, they’ll block everything,” the 65-year-old gardener told AFP in Warsaw.

Trzaskowski voters tend to back greater integration within the EU and an acceleration of social reforms.

Nawrocki’s campaign was overshadowed at times by controversies over a murky apartment purchase and his football hooligan past.

An amateur boxer, Nawrocki also denied media reports that he had procured sex workers while working as a hotel security guard.

Nawrocki used his last campaign hours to leave flowers at a monument to Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II.

“It was a genocide,” he said.

Poland is a fast-growing economy of 38 million people with a leading role in international diplomacy surrounding Ukraine.

It is also a key supply route for Western arms and aid going into Ukraine. (AFP)