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T&T Energy Outlook Worrisome – Ramnarine 

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By Prior Beharry

THE energy outlook for Trinidad and Tobago is worrisome and former energy minister Kevin Ramnarine does not see any ease until at least 2028.

But, then again in life, nothing is promised, he said.

Ramnarine was speaking on a CCN TV6 panel discussion with host Fazeer Mohammed on Monday evening after Minister of Finance Colm Imbert delivered the 2023/2024 National Budget. Other members of the panel included Minister of Rural Development and Local Government Faris Al-Rawi, Minister in the Ministry of Finance Brian Manning and former minister in finance Karen Nunez-Tesheira.

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In his presentation of the budget with a total expenditure of $59.209 billion, Imbert noted concerns in the energy sector.

He said, “However, we are cognizant that we are significantly below the highest production level of 4.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfpd) in natural gas utilised by our petrochemical plants and LNG facility at capacity levels in the past. 

“At current production levels, averaging 2.7 bcfpd, our processing plants have spare capacity of 1.5 additional bcfpd. We have therefore taken decisive action in support of our energy production capacity to increase our oil and gas production. 

“Rystad Energy, an independent research and business intelligence company, forecasts that if key offshore projects advance, gas production could rebound to 4 billion bcfpd by 2030. In the interim, gas production will stabilise at approximately 2.6 billion cubic feet in 2024 and 2.5 billion cubic feet in 2025.”

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Imbert said, “Our energy sector will remain our primary growth engine in the near to medium term.”

But Ramnarine was critical of the energy sector giving examples of businesses closing due to its contraction.

He said in the northwestern peninsula there were a number of business closures including two banks – Republic Bank and RBC – Massy Stores and Zanzibar Restuarant.

Ramnarine said, “All because of lower energy sector activity on the peninsula.

At the Point Lisas Industrial Estate, he said, the Arcelor Mital Steel Plant, MHTL1, Yara Amononia and Titan Methano plants have closed down.

And at Point-a-Pierre, he said, the refinery was shut down.

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With respect to Point Fortin, Ramnairne said, “We now have three LNG trains when we used to have four. And the three we have operating at 65% capacity.”

He described Galeotoa as a ghost town because energy sector activity has fallen with drilling decreasing by 63% from 2015 to 2022.

Ramnarine said in T&T, gas production has fallen by 30% and oil production decreased by 27%.

He said jobs in the energy sector have fallen 54% in the last eight years.

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Ramanrine added, “So I don’t know how that could be construed as a sector moving in the right direction.

“There is hope on the horizon if we get Manatee, but Shell has not sanctioned it.

“Dragon we don’t know when that is going to come.”

T&T and Venezuela signed a deal to explore the Dragon Gas Field in Venezuelan waters on September 20. But details of it have not been released based on a non-disclosure agreement.

On January 24, 2023, the US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) granted T&T a licence to get gas from the Dragon Gas Field.

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The Dragon Gas Field holds about 4.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves and the project will see an agreement among, Trinidad and Tobago Natural Gas Company, PDVSA and Shell as the operator since it has a platform in Trinidad and Tobago waters near the field.

Ramnarine said, “We know the minister signed something and everybody clapped. If I see somebody clapping for something they are not aware of, I might think they (are) mad, but nobody knows what was signed and nobody could say when that Dragon Gas will arrive in Trinidad.

“When you look at the actual numbers published by the Ministry of Energy, gas production is not moving in the right direction. We’ve been under 3bcfps since January 2021.

“Those plants that are remaining operational at Point Lisas and Atlantic are doing so at 70%, 80% capacity.

“We are in a worrying space and… the message I would like to get out tonight is that I don’t see any reprieve for that narrative I gave there until 2028 and even that, nothing is promised in this life.”

 

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